IMF lifts Nigeria's growth forecast to 4.2% and urges help with food costs
The fund sees 4.3% growth next year, but says rising prices are hurting households and calls for targeted cash support.
Bangkok — The International Monetary Fund has raised its forecast for Nigeria's economic growth this year to 4.2%, and expects 4.3% in 2027.
The 2026 figure is 0.1 of a percentage point higher than the fund's previous forecast. It appears in the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook, presented in Bangkok, Nairametrics reports.
Why the outlook improved
The IMF credits Nigeria's better outlook to greater economic stability and to favourable prices for what the country sells abroad.
Other forecasts point the same way:
- The World Bank recently raised its 2026 forecast for Nigeria to 4.3%, and projects 4.4% in both 2027 and 2028.
- The World Bank has also upgraded its forecasts for nearly three-quarters of the countries of sub-Saharan Africa.
- Nigeria's own statistics bureau reported growth of 4.43% in the second quarter of 2026, against 4.23% in the same quarter of 2025.
The warning
The fund also said that the rising cost of food and energy is hurting Nigerians, and warned that higher prices for essentials could deepen poverty and food insecurity.
Answering a question from a Nigerian journalist, an IMF division chief, Deniz Igan, said growth had held up because Nigeria exports energy, but that pressure on households remains very high and food supplies face a risk from El Nino.
She recommended temporary, targeted cash transfers and income support for the most vulnerable households, paid for through better spending and stronger revenue collection.
The debate at home
The recommendation comes as opposition figures press the government to bring back some petrol subsidies. The government has announced a 30-day window of discounted petrol from the state oil company, with public transport given priority. The Finance Minister, Taiwo Oyedele, says that is paid for from retailers' margins and is not a subsidy; critics disagree.
The world picture
The IMF expects global growth to slow to 3.1% in 2026 before recovering to 3.4% in 2027, with inflation at 4.7% this year.
Source: Nairametrics, reporting by Olalekan Adigun, 13 October 2026.
