World Bank lifts Africa growth forecast to 4.3%
Three in four economies south of the Sahara have been upgraded. But prices are rising again, and income per person is growing at under 2% a year.
Washington — Sub-Saharan Africa's economy will grow by 4.3% this year, up from 4.1% in 2025, the World Bank says in its October update on the region. That is 0.3 percentage points more than it forecast in April.
The bank has raised its forecast for nearly three-quarters of the region's countries. It names Angola, Ethiopia, Nigeria and Zambia among them.
"These gains reflect years of reforms and improved economic management," said Andrew Dabalen, the bank's chief economist for Africa. Activity in the region, he said, "continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience".
The numbers behind the headline
The upgrade comes with three warnings.
- Prices. Median inflation is projected to rise from 3.7% last year to 5.5% this year.
- Debt. Public debt has stabilised at about 57% of economic output, but the cost of servicing it is squeezing what governments can spend on health, schools and infrastructure.
- Incomes. Growth per person is forecast at 1.8% this year, up from 1.6%, and about 2% a year in 2027 and 2028.
That last figure is the one that matters most to households. The bank says growth "remains insufficient to substantially reduce extreme poverty or create enough jobs for the region's rapidly growing labor force".
Less aid, more risk
Development assistance to the region is falling, which puts more pressure on governments to raise money at home.
The bank lists the risks that could knock the forecast off course: geopolitical tension, higher commodity prices, climate shocks and El Niño, tighter financing, uncertainty over trade policy, disease outbreaks and insecurity.
"The next challenge is turning growth into more jobs and better opportunities," Dabalen said.
Source: World Bank press release, 6 October 2026.
